Archive of email #12 to participants

Hope and Realism
April 2, 2009

Recent headlines herald a new era in Russian-American relations as Presidents Obama and Medvedev call for new cuts in nuclear arsenals. Sen. Richard Lugar, an Indiana Republican and long-time arms control advocate, calls the developments "truly remarkable." While optimism is warranted, a gathering, but as yet unseen, cloud demands our attention if this ray of hope is to broaden into a new day where humanity is truly free of the nuclear menace.

During the 1980's, when the problem was in sharp focus, public demand for a more rational nuclear weapons policy reached unprecedented levels and contributed to President Reagan's about-face on arms control. But with the end of the Cold War, public concern evaporated*, leading to a return of frosty Russian-American relations and a heightened risk level.

To avoid merely bequeathing the problem to our children, we must remember that no single step can solve this problem, no matter how dramatic it might seem. My preliminary risk analysis indicates that depending on nuclear weapons for our security is equivalent to building ring after ring of nuclear power plants around your town until there were at least a thousand of them surrounding you. While the Obama-Medvedev initiative is a welcome sign, it can no more reduce the risk a thousand-fold than did the actions of Reagan and Gorbachev twenty years ago.

Fortunately, risk analysis gives us a tool for measuring not only how far we have come, but how much further we still must go. If we can get this approach embedded in society's consciousness, we can avoid repeating the mistake of the eighties, when public concern went into hibernation much too early.

If you have not already done so, I encourage you to read Soaring, Cryptography and Nuclear Weapons, which clarifies the need for an ongoing effort.

As our web headline says, "You are the key to defusing the nuclear threat." I therefore hope that you will share this email with others who might be interested and encourage them to sign up for these automatic updates via the JOIN US box on our web site.

With thanks.

Martin
================================
Martin Hellman
Member, National Academy of Engineering
Professor Emeritus of Electrical Engineering
    Stanford University

* A 1982, nuclear disarmament rally in New York's Central Park drew between hundreds of thousands. In contrast, an event six years later, when relations had just started to improve, drew only 25% as many people. More recently, a 2005 event attracted less than 5% of 1982's participants.

 

 

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