The first step in defusing the nuclear threat is for you to evaluate our arguments that the risk posed by nuclear weapons is highly unacceptable, and decide for yourself whether or not action is needed. Our home page provides the best overview, so please take a few minutes to read it before diving into the more detailed information listed below. The most generally useful resources are listed first, with more specialized ones later.
Forming Pockets of Nuclear Awareness
People are social animals and we look to those around us for cues on what is important, what is not, and how to behave. Until a critical mass of people within a population treat nuclear weapons with the respect that they deserve, most will ignore it. To break out of this catch-22 that few will pay attention until many are doing so, we are using an innovative business technique known as market segmentation.
Critical mass – sometimes called a tipping point – is on the order of 5-10% of a population. That's the point at which an average person comes in contact with the idea on a frequent enough basis to take it seriously. That's 15-30 million Americans – far beyond our resources – so we first seek to form pockets of nuclear awareness in neighborhoods, schools, churches, or other interconnected groups that are small enough for us to have a reasonable chance of success. From such beach heads, the idea can spread more widely until enough public support exists to change national policies in ways that reduce the risk and enhance our national security. The approach, and resources to help you form your own pocket, are explained using the Stanford University campus as an illustrative example. Seven prominent members of the Stanford community are encouraging students to become involved in that effort.
Soaring, Cryptography and Nuclear Weapons
Nuclear weapons are the elephant in the room that almost no one wants to talk about, so this article approaches the issue from the less threatening and more inviting perspective of soaring. How could that glider be suspended over the runway, and how could that possibly relate to nuclear weapons? In a 10-15 minutes read, you'll learn the answers to those questions as well as come away:
- understanding the basic ideas behind risk analysis,
- how it can be applied to the nuclear threat,
- why nuclear weapons are much riskier than most people realize, and
- how this seemingly insoluble problem can be solved in a step-by-step process.
The Primer
As its name implies, this resource provides a basic understanding of the issues involved in defusing the nuclear threat.
The Statement
Seven prominent individuals "urgently petition the international scientific community to undertake in-depth risk analyses of nuclear deterrence and, if the results so indicate, to raise an alarm alerting society to the unacceptable risk it faces as well as initiating a second phase effort to identify potential solutions." We hope you too will join the effort.
The Paper (1.8 MB PDF)
"Risk Analysis of Nuclear Deterrence" was published in the Spring 2008 issue of the magazine of the engineering honor society, The Bent of Tau Beta Pi. Since the paper is intended for an engineering audience, the Risk Analysis section of this site explains the key ideas of the paper in non-mathematical language.
Sample Email or Letter
Bringing up such a weighty subject may seem daunting. This sample can help get you started.
News Coverage
IEEE Spectrum (31 March 2008): The Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers is the world's largest technical society. Its magazine reached 385,000 readers with coverage of our project.Stanford Magazine (September-October 2008): Stanford's alumni magazine brought news of our project to over 180,000 readers.
The Stanford News Service has a July 17, 2009 story on our project, both in written form and a short video.
Archive of Email Updates
NOTE: With the advent of my blog on Defusing the Nuclear Threat, future posts will not be listed below since they will be cataloged there.email #35 (7 May 2010) Announcing a Blog
email #34 (24 Apr 2010) Nuclear Tipping Point Film Available
email #33 (18 Apr 2010) Socrates' Wisdom for Defusing the Nuclear Threat
email #32 (17 Mar 2010) Georgia Invaded by Russia, Saakashvili Dead, American Troops Airlifted to Region!
email #31 (10 Mar 2010) NATO and Russia
email #30 (7 Feb 2010) Effective Messaging
email #29 (25 Jan 2010) The Stanford Project
email #28 (27 Dec 2009) Nuclear Weapons and the Circus
email #27 (20 Dec 2009) How It Works, version 1.1
email #26 (9 Oct 2009) The Nobel Peace Prize and You
email #25 (25 Sep 2009) How Risky Are Nuclear Weapons?
email #24 (17 Sep 2009) Missile Defense: A Play in One Act?
email #23 (7 Sep 2009) How Confident Should a Nuclear Optimist Be?
email #22 (29 Aug 2009) How Civilized Are We?
email #21 (22 Aug 2009) The Man in the TNT Vest
email #20 (12 Aug 2009) Differing Perspectives: Could They Prove Fatal?
email #19 (4 Aug 2009) Understanding North Korea
email #18 (3 July 2009) Understanding Iran
email #17 (26 June 2009) "Soaring" article now on YouTube!
email #16 (29 May 2009) Evidence of the Need for Risk Analysis
email #15 (7 May 2009) Bipartisan Report on Improving Russian-American Relations
email #14 (14 Apr 2009) Cassandra or Oracle?
email #13 (5 Apr 2009) A Miracle?
email #12 (2 Apr 2009) Hope and Realism
email #11 (1 Mar 2009) An Amazing Article in TIME Magazine
email #10 (24 Nov 2008) Digg the Soaring article!
email #9 (17 Nov 2008) Updates
email #8 (21 Oct 2008) Soaring, Cryptography and Nuclear Weapons
email #7 (21 Sep 2008) Stanford Coverage, and More on Georgia
email #6 (12 Sep 2008) More on the Georgian Crisis
email #5 (19 Aug 2008) Russia's war with Georgia
email #4 (23 July 2008) A Second Cuban Missile Crisis?
email #3 (02 July 2008)
email #2 (13 May 2008)
email #1 (27 April 2008)